Last Week ATS: 5-1 (Added Clemson +6.5 to the FSB Facebook page Monday)
Last Week ML: 0-2 (-2 units)
Last Week Alt Lines: 0-1 (-1 unit)
2015 Season ATS: 133-134-3 (50%)
2015 Season ML: 13-29 (-2.2 units)
2015 Season Alt Lines: 4-3 (+5.65 units)
2014 Season ATS: 77-48-5 (62%)
Not a bad way to kick off the playoffs, going 4-1 ATS and then riding with Clemson through the backdoor on Monday night for a 5-1 ATS weekend. The plus money plays are just not hitting however, which really ate into the black number I was posting most of the season. At one point I was +14 units on adjusted lines and money lines.
On to the weekend…
Lines courtesy of scoresandodds.com. For entertainment purposes only.
Chiefs (+5) at Patriots (Total: 42)
So I locked in Chiefs +4.5 earlier this week on the FSB Facebook page, but I have to be honest..I’m starting to get cold feet. Every knucklehead with a microphone in the mainstream media is calling for the Chiefs upset; definitely not a situation I foresaw materializing this week. On top of that, the public is split on the side and only slightly leaning on New England money line as we speak. The Patriots aren’t even laying 6 points and the public isn’t biting? Edelman, Amendola and Vollmer all appear set to return, and the Pats haven’t won since December 20th. Stay tuned, I may cancel this out with a Patriots play.
Packers (+7) at Cardinals (Total: 50)
Cardinals -7 is locked and loaded. Aaron Rodgers created an up tempo avalanche last Sunday that the Redskins had no answers for in their blow out loss. Once the Redskins tried to adjust by not substituting as much the Packers killed them with the run versus a small base defense. Arizona has too many horses and Bruce Arians is a much better jockey than Jay Gruden. Sprinkle the Cardinals -14.5 (+217) as well, the Joe Public teaser will most definitely have Green Bay +13 and +17 in it somewhere.
Seahawks (+2.5) at Panthers (Total: 44)
Seattle +2.5 and +125 was locked and loaded yesterday and now this line is Seahawks +1. Carolina crushed the sharps in a somewhat similar spot on Thanksgiving when they were GETTING points from Dallas even though they were undefeated. Even though that memory still stings (the Panthers blew out Dallas) playoff lines are different from November lines. The books aren’t making mistake in January, and Seattle +3 was a lightning rod for sharp money. Even with the tickets rolling in on Carolina, the bit coins are coming in on Seattle enough to drastically move this line off of a key number. Carolina is down a couple defensive backs and Seattle has owned this matchup during the Russell Wilson era. Let’s not forget this Panther team lost a home game as the 2 seed in 2014 to the 49ers. Get ready for the “Panthers are playoff chokers” narrative to ratchet up. Seattle moves a step closer to a 3rd straight Super Bowl.
Steelers (+7.5) at Broncos (Total: 40)
How people have any conviction on this game at this point (Friday night) is beyond me. No Antonio Brown, no D’Angelo Williams and a severely injured Big Ben. There wasn’t even a total on this game until today and the line has jumped all over as injury news rolls in. By tomorrow this could easily be Denver -9 or -10. With as many question marks as Pittsburgh has, how do we know what we will get from Peyton? We last saw him called out of the bullpen to make a couple throws, but mainly hand off the ball. No play for me here for now.