Last Week: 9-8-1
This Week: 1-0 (Redskins/Giants over 45 last night, posted on the FSB Facebook page)
2015 Season ATS: 17-19-1
2015 ML Plays (1 unit per play): 1-1 (+.75 units)
2014 Season: 77-48-5
Still clawing my way back to even, but things are looking up. I’ve hit my last 4 NFL plays, had a ML winner with the Raiders and starting to get in the flow of college too. Another brutal loss for the record that ended up being a push in reality with Toledo last week. I posted -7.5 but it ended up -7, as the Rockets got the miracle push in OT after Iowa State missed a chip shot FG to win in regulation. Always remember to buy the hook, especially on a key number like 7.
Last week in college I went for the big card, which was very good to me last year. Last week was a mixed bag, but the three I posted in the comments as my favorite plays (Duke, Georgia, Ole Miss/Bama over) did go 2-1.
Speaking of last week, what an absolute beatdown the public took on Sunday and Monday NFL. Teasers were getting blown up left and right with all those underdogs winning outright. You can thank the Bucs, Raiders, Redskins, Jags and Jets for your teaser ticket getting torn up. Check out my post from last year about picking games that discusses teasers and why you shouldn’t ever play them.
With a couple weeks under my belt, it now becomes a little clearer who some of these teams are and where the public is overreacting. Also, more situational plays are starting to arise where teams are in a bad spot, whether it be a look ahead situation to tougher opponents in the following weeks, short rest or long travel.
On to the picks, feel free to discuss them in the comments, and check back to the comments section throughout the weekend for any additional picks that I add.
Also, check out these bad beats from college last weekend, courtesy of Scott Van Pelt and his new Midnight Sports Center show. If you haven’t watched the show, it’s one of the best ESPN studio shows in years. Van Pelt does an awesome job and doesn’t take himself too seriously; the tone and tenor of the show is great.
Lines courtesy of scoresandodds.com. For entertainment purposes only.
Virginia +2: This is a really tough spot for Boise State, as the travel west to east for a Friday night game in Charlottesville just before their conference play starts. Virginia is going into a bye week and Mike London will have his coaching staff pull out all the stops here, as he desperately needs a win over a marquee name to turn down the heat on his coaches chair. UVa has already seen UCLA and Notre Dame this season, so the level of competition won’t phase them. Public action looks pretty split, give me the home team.
Michigan -6: Fading BYU again as the Cougars wrap up one of the toughest four game stretches you will ever see to open a season. BYU is 2-1 straight up (two Hail Mary wins) and 3-0 ATS after throwing everything they had at UCLA last Saturday night, ultimately losing by a point as a 16 point underdog. Now a trip to Michigan, and a 12pm start against Harbaughs Wolverines. BYU ends their four game gauntlet with dud in Ann Arbor, as Michigan finds as much success on the ground as UCLA did last week (296 yards on 38 attempts.)
Arkansas State/Toledo over 61: I watched way too much of Iowa State/Toledo last week, I really need to get out more. However, I saw enough to see Iowa State shred the Toledo defense, especially on 3rd down. Toledo’s defense allowed Iowa State to convert 15 out of 23 3rd down conversions, pathetic. Toledo and Arkansas State have played two power conference schools a piece, and now get to loosen up in a lower profile game. These two actually played last January, in the GoDaddy Bowl — truly an honor I’m sure — and the two teams combined to hit 107 points. This season, neither team has gone over the total yet. That changes Saturday. Bonus points for the public backing the under here yet the line has gone up four points.
Boston College -4.5: Purely a Northern Illinois fade, after going four quarters with the defending champ Buckeyes and staying in the game until the end. No way that they get up for a road trip to Chestnut Hill, which is their 3rd consecutive road trip. BC comes in with a couple extra days of rest, off of a shut out loss at home to Florida State. The public saw Northern Illinois hang with Ohio State last weekend and are smitten with the 4.5 points this weekend. Bad idea. The Golden Eagles get all their frustrations out on Saturday, in a double digit win.
Rams +2: Talk about a situational play. The Steelers are coming off a blow out win against the 49ers after finding themselves in a great logisitcal situation. 10 days of rest, the 49ers traveling west to east and playing on a short week of preparation after playing the previous Monday night. Now all people remember is a Steelers blowout win, meanwhile the Rams just lost to the Redskins. I picked the Redskins last week because that was a bad spot for the Rams, coming off an OT straight up win over a divisional rival as an underdog. Now the Rams get back in the dome, the Steelers are a road fave (a situation they struggle in) and Pittsburgh has their arch rival Ravens the following Thursday night. Throw in the fact that the Rams loss to the Redskins looks even worse after the Skins blowout loss to the Giants last night on national television, and this looks like a big time sucker play if you take Pittsburgh.
Eagles +2.5: A system play of mine I learned a few years ago, that usually works out well for me. Always fade a favorite that won straight up the prior week as an underdog. Bonus points if the dog winner was on a national TV game. Extra bonus points if the side you are taking is a team the public has been backing and losing on. Throw that all in a blender and voila, Eagles +2.5.
Lions +3: ibid.
Cowboys +1.5: Dean Smith once said something about a team being able to rally and win one game without it’s star player. After that it gets tricky. Here is that one game.