NFL Picks — Week 15


Last Week ATS: 8-5 (Added Cowboys +3, ML +125 and over 42.5 to the FSB Facebook Page on 12/7)

Last Week ML: 3-5 (+1.90 units)

2015 Season ATS: 105-107-3 (49%)

2015 Season ML: 11-18 (+5 units)

2014 Season ATS: 77-48-5 (62%)


My last 8 weeks I’ve gone 65-55-1, so things have been looking up even if the ATS record for the season is only at 49%. Those couple of extra large cards in September that crashed and burned are still haunting the season record.

The college regular season officially ended yesterday, with poor Army figuring out yet another crushing way to lose to Navy. Their wire to wire cover ATS (+21.5 points) provides no solace to the West Point contingent I’m sure.

I’ll have a post dedicated to the bowls where I will update picks throughout the bowl season. I do have one play already as I locked in Oklahoma -3 in their CFB Playoff semifinal against Clemson. The line now sits at 3.5 or 4 depending on where you look. Clemson is the #1 seed in the playoffs, yet is getting points? 

Oklahoma and Clemson both gave up 20 points a game this season, but when you look at the disparity in offenses these teams faced it becomes clear that Oklahoma’s points allowed is much more impressive. Will be interesting to see how Clemson reacts to being an underdog for the first time all year. The Sooners are 9-3 ATS this season and that includes covering some large numbers. More on this game as we get closer to kickoff.


You may have noticed my overloading of ML dog plays last week. ‘Tis this season. Teasers are never a good idea, but they are an even worse idea in December and January. Either your teaser will hit but it would have been a winning parlay and you left money on the table, OR, your teaser gets blown to shreds by a large favorite who loses outright. 

Obvious teaser sides are favorites of 6, 7, 8 and 10 points. Most teasers will make those favorites a pick’em or at least cross over the key numbers of 7 and 3. Look for dogs in these games that you deem to be feisty and that the public isn’t backing and sprinkle some on the ML as well as taking them with the points of course.

If you don’t think ML dog plays are worth it, check out my record for the season. I’m 11-18 picking dog ML’s but the result +5 units.

Another trick is to look for favorites of 7 points of more that the public feels is laying too many points. If you like the fave, you should also take them on the alternate line. Alternate lines are posted lines that are larger than the standard line for the game, but that offer higher payouts.

For instance, I recommended last week that besides laying 10 points with the Steelers against the Colts, you should lay 13.5 and 17 points as well. I liked those alternate lines because there was a lot of chatter that the Colts were getting too many points and that meant they were likely getting thrown into 6 and 10 points teasers, making them +16 or +20 in those scenarios. Taking the alternate lines for Pittsburgh (or any fave) is another way to directly go against people who play teasers.

Final score: Steelers 45 Colts 10

Look for alternate line plays posted the rest of the season. 


Lines courtesy of For entertainment purposes only.


Panthers -8, Alt Line -14.5 (+220): Atlanta hasn’t covered since October 4th, and yet the public is backing them in the Charlotte today. Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense is officially a full blown mess, and not just in a slump. The Falcons have played — and lost — 5 straight close games. The dam bursts open today. Panthers win big.

Browns -1.5: Niners back to back trips to the midwest not a great spot. How on earth does this putrid Browns team lay points to anyone? Niners coming off a flukey OT win at Chicago that they really should have lost. Johnny Football will be on his best behavior in this one and scramble his way to a Browns win.

Chiefs -11, Alt Line -17.5 (+220): Still no love from the public for the Chiefs, who have covered won and covered 6 straight. The oddsmakers have showed some love with a double digit spread against an extremely banged up Chargers team. KC D might cover this one of their own.

Jets -8, Alt Line -13.5 (+210): Yet another 7+ point fave the public isn’t backing. Mariota on the road against a good defense? The kid is good but today will be a long one for him.

Raiders +6.5, ML +225: Osweiler has been a nice story, but Denver hasn’t been scoring a ton with him under center. Bill Simmons said he’ll have the Broncos in all of his teasers, so you know what that means.


One thought on “NFL Picks — Week 15

  • December 13, 2015 at 4:10 pm

    Dallas +6 and ML +215


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