Last Week: 6-2-1
This Week: 0-1 (Cal/UCLA 2H over posted on the FSB Facebook page)
Last Week ML: 0-0 (Took 9 favorites, doubt you’ll ever see that again)
2015 Season ATS: 44-51-3 (46%)
2015 Season ML: 3-5 (+2.05 units)
2014 Season ATS: 77-48-5 (62%)
This strange season of picks for me got stranger last weekend. If I looked back at previous years of my picks I’d imagine the sides would be about 2/3 underdogs. Well last week I got in bed with nine favorites and zero underdogs and had my best weekend of the season. I guess you can teach an old dog new tricks.
I’d like to think I’m finally hitting a groove and on my way to a black number for the season sometime in the near future. I’ve already posted two plays in the Utah/USC game and my college card is extra large this week.
As always, look for added picks in the comments section throughout the weekend. Time to string together some winning weeks.
Lines courtesy of scoresandodds.com. For entertainment purposes only.
Tulsa +10.5, ML+355 and Memphis/Tulsa Over 76.5: Memphis is coming off a 13 points win as a 10 point underdog at home last weekend over Ole Miss and now the world is on them. Now they are laying 10.5 in a road night game? Board up your windows Memphis backers, the Golden Hurricanes keep this close. Take the over because Friday Night Lights will bring out the offenses and sprinkle that ML in case things get really nuts.
San Diego State +3.5 and ML +160: Pretty much the exact reason as above. Utah State is off a big upset win over Boise State but SDSU has covered their last 3 games and will win this one outright.
Texas -6.5: Perhaps Texas has figured things out after their big upset win over Oklahoma. They’ve had a bye week in between so no let down here and they have a 23-0 loss last year at Kansas State to avenge.
Clemson -7: Big reverse line move here as the public is backing a Miami team that finally figured out how to not have a letdown after their FSU game by covering the number and beating Virginia Tech last week. “Fire Al Golden” banners were flying over stadiums just a few weeks ago and that sentiment will be back on Saturday after the Tigers whip up on the Canes in front a less than packed house for this High Noon matchup in Miami Gardens.
Auburn/Arkansas Over 51: Line has crossed over the key number 49. This just seems like one of those early kickoff SEC games that ends up with both teams cracking 30 points. 38-35, someone.
Indiana +16.5: Fading Sparty again after they covered for the first time this season last weekend in that insane game at The Big House. That punt debacle was the highlight, but Sparty was down 9 in the later stages of that game before Michigan lost track of a fullback who inexplicably picked up 75 yards on a wide open pass to cut the game to 2. Michigan State sleepwalks through this one against a game Hoosiers team. With their first bye of the season on the horizon, Sparty runs out of gas and stays inside the number.
Alabama -15: The public is not smitten with the Crimson Tide and I can’t figure out why. One week after they went against the Fighting Saban’s and got burned, they are backing Tennessee on the road against this killer defense. QB Jake Coker is improving with each week and with a loss on their schedule, Bama will go for style points every chance they get. Bama rolls.
Maryland +6.5 and ML +205: Hold your nose and watch the Terps show up for the biggest game left on their schedule that they can actually win. Big revenge angle for Penn State backers in the sequel to “handshake gate”, but this game is still bigger for Maryland as they consider Penn State their Big 10 rival. New coach in place will be a welcome relief from the dictatorship of Randy Edsall and the Terps won’t disappoint. Game being played in Baltimore’s M&T Bank Stadium for extra juice. Terps throw every trick in the book at a hobbled Christian Hackenberg and win outright.
Arizona -7: Zona and Wazzou both have productive offenses and sub par defense. I’ll take Rich Rod over Mike Leach and the team that has played the much tougher schedule.
UConn +13: Cincy has spanked the Huskies the past two seasons and now a spread of less than two touchdowns is hung in Vegas? Cincy has a top ten passing offense nationally and UConn struggles to score. This line makes no sense so give me the dog. Cincy QB Gunner Kiel can’t stay healthy and backup Hayden Moore has been inconsistent. Ball control and a decent UConn defense keeps this close.
USC -3.5 and Utah/USC Over 60: Posted yesterday
Mississippi State -11.5: The Bulldogs are still under valued a year after reaching #1 in the polls. This line should be 14 at least. Public backing Kentucky against the 12th most efficient team in the country. Dak Prescott all day and with no look ahead spot here, the Bulldogs pour it on for the cowbell ringing home fans under the lights.
Georgia Tech +7 and ML +220: Back on the Jackets against the Dalvin Cook show. Cook has a hamstring that’s barking and Georgia Tech has to cover one of these games, right? This line stinks and Paul Johnson’s offense has given the Noles fits before. Here’s your Saturday night shocker as Georgia Tech puts a scare in the Noles all the way to the end. Sprinkle that ML.
Patriots -7.5: The game that everyone keeps saying will be one of the best games of the week. Pats off a backdoor cover in Indy last Sunday won’t take their foot off the gas until this one is over. Fading the public means I get the best team in the NFL at home against a division team that Belichick hates with a passion? Done.
Buccaneers +3.5 and ML +150: Redskins season officially ends Sunday. It’s never good when your own head coach calls an October game against Tampa Bay as a “Code Red” game. Also it’s “Homecoming” for Redskins, which is just adorable. I hope you guys found a date for the dance.
Raiders +4 and ML +155: Two straight emotionally exhausting losses for the Chargers and now they go home for the battle of teams that might move to LA. Raiders off a bye, reverse line move on the Chargers, give me the silver and black. Derek Carr is fully capable of hanging with Phil Rio.
Cowboys/Giants over 45: Brandon Weeden out, Matt Cassel in. The over is 9-3-1 in the last 13 between these two and Dez Bryant could return. Last team with the ball wins, no shortage of points.