Football is around the corner (actually, does it ever go away? NFL Live aired episodes in April), and with it returns the FSB football picks. First up, the college football season win total picks and week 1 picks.
Coming off a very successful 2014 picking games against the spread, hitting 62% winners (77-48-5) in college and pro combined, I’m itching to follow it up with another 60%+ season.
Last season, I posted all my picks on the FSB Facebook page, which I came to realize wasn’t ideal for record keeping purposes. So this season, keep tabs on the site because all the picks will be in posts as well as the comments section of said posts.
The plan is to post three to five plays a week sometime on Thursday or Friday with brief write-ups. However, I’m always adding plays over the weekend and those will go into the comments section of that weeks post. This will be the easiest way to keep records as well as for you guys to find them.
Before the first kickoff, some college season win total picks are in order. NFL win totals will be next week.
Odds via scoresandodds.com. For entertainment purposes only.
Georgia, over 9 (-135): Questions at QB, but a loaded roster outside of that led by RB Nick Chubb and a formidable defense. An easy out of conference schedule and the SEC East is still pretty weak. A spot in the SEC title game is Georgia’s to lose yet the public is split on this total. Take the over as Georgia hits double digit wins.
Nebraska, under 8.5 (-130): New coach, new system and a tough early schedule with games vs BYU and at Miami (FL). The Huskers catch Michigan State and Wisconsin at home and avoid Ohio State, but lots of attrition on defense plus the new scheme means the Huskers could very well have a flukey loss. Mike Riley will yield results once he gets his speed guys on the roster, but this season smells like 7-8 wins.
UNLV, under 2.5 (-135): The Rebels hired a coach straight out of high school (only the 3rd time ever a D-1 school hired a coach with no prior college experience), only won 2 games last year (by a combined 4 points) and still the public is split on the jaw dropping win total. Take the under.
Mississippi State, over 7 (-135): The lowest win total in the brutal SEC West? I’ll bite. Coach Dan Mullen will have his team approach every game with a chip on its shoulder after being picked last in the division one year after reaching #1 in the country. The public thinks the Bulldogs were a fluke, but I like them to be competitive and hit this over. QB Dax Prescott is back, they pair the tough conference schedule with a very easy non conference schedule, and I think there’s enough talent to pull off an upset or two (at Texas A&M perhaps) and surpass seven wins.
2014 record: 77-48-5
South Carolina/North Carolina over 63.5: Small spread hopefully ensures both teams stay in this game for a good back and forth affair. Hitting 63.5 points typically requires two to tango, and UNC’s defense is happy to oblige while South Carolina has a new co-defensive coordinator who will split duties; sounds like a situation ripe for some blown assignments. UNC dual threat QB Marquise Williams should be good for a couple quick scores. Two years after these two opened in Columbia with a long in game lightning delay, there are no weather concerns for Charlotte, NC tonight.
UCLA -19.5 vs Virginia: UVa stayed within the double digit number wire to wire in their home opener versus the Bruins last season, and Virginia really outplayed UCLA for the most part. The cross country trip won’t be so kind to the Cavaliers as UCLA’s veteran defense awaits new UVa QB Matt Johns (4 career starts). UCLA frosh QB won’t need to do the heavy lifting because UCLA has a strong running game and UVa won’t be able to produce points with their limited playmakers on offense. Plus, Mike London is still the Cavalier coach, right? Don’t trust him in a situation where both teams have ample time to prepare.
Ohio State/Virginia Tech under 53: Last years Hokie/Buckeye matchup flew over and also featured several missed field goals that could have pushed the score even higher. This year, expect the rematch to grind away on Labor Day night. Virginia Tech has one of their best defenses in years but their offense won’t get close to 28 points that they scored on Ohio State last year (Hokies 5th touchdown was a pick 6). Bud Foster’s defense was all over T.J. Barrett in last seasons game, so look for more ball control from Ohio State throughout the game as they feel out the Hokie D. The Buckeyes will be missing three wide receivers to suspensions, so the offensive explosion could be lacking. Ohio State wins by right around the spread (-13.5 currently) but the game doesn’t break 50.